November 05, 2005

Confrontation: Thoughts on the upcoming European Civil War

The Islamic insurrections in France and Denmark raise some interesting questions about how Europe may look 20 years from now, and what its relationship will be to the Anglosphere.

Paris has endured its ninth night of Islamic mayhem, with thousands of unintegrated Muslim youths torching, in one night, over 900 vehicles, attacking two nurseries and one school, a fire station, an emergency vehicle and setting a disabled woman on fire – among the more generalized mindless violence and mayhem. That a country would choose to endure a civil insurrection of this magnitude by unschooled – and unemployed, thus non-contributing – violent immigrants for nine straight nights is astounding.

I think we are seeing the first skirmishes of a civil war on the continent of Europe – with possibly some blowback in Britain if the flaccid socialist apologists are still in office when it happens.

The French, I predict, will continue to be conciliatory and agree to meetings to “address injustices” and the Muslim “spokesmen”, “community leaders”, mullahs, imams, apologists and explicators will come pouring in with their oily taqqya and kitman (a formal Muslim bait ‘n’ switch strategy for leading non-Muslims up the garden path) and the French government will, naturally, give in to demands.

The Danes, on the other hand, are Vikings with million gigabyte memories and that red Viking blood still flows in their veins. Last week, the Danish prime minister refused to meet with 11 accredited ambassadors from Muslim countries to discuss their insulted feelings at the publication in a Danish newspaper of cartoons of Mohammed. He cited freedom of the press and told them he wouldn’t accord them a meeting because there was nothing to discuss.

The Dutch, who have been pretty vapid about Islamic aggression in their country have now endured Islam-related public murders on the streets of Amsterdam: filmmaker Theo van Gogh was shot off his bicycle, his throat cut and a message pinned to his chest with a knife, and in the last couple of months a public "honor killing". Members of parliament Geert Wilders and Aaryan Hirsi Ali (an apostate) have been under 24-hour police protection for around a year now after credible death threats. Hirsi Ali has stated in public that the government errs in refusing to acknowledge that the problem is not a few errant individuals, but Islam itself. I believe the Dutch may now be turning the corner.

This is a war of civilizations, which we will win. The fighters, and victors, will be the northern Europeans – the Dutch, the Brits and the Scandinavians (with the help of the Poles and other new members who endured Soviet dictatorship and aren’t about to lie down for a re-run).

I foresee, in the long term, the dissolution of the EU. I believe that the southern European countries may hive off and form their own alliance with N Africa. I can see France, Spain, Portugal, Malta and possibly Greece forming a trade area, and possibly a political area, with Libya, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria. In other words, Chirac’s famous “les deux rives de la Méditerranée” (the two banks of the Mediterranean). It is possible that French W Africa, as in Ivory Coast and Somalia, might be included in this bloc, as it would, in any case, be largely Francophone.

Britain, being the largest economy, will lead an alliance along the lines of EFTA – the original European Free Trade Association, with the Vikings, Dutch, Poles and some of the newer EU members. Possibly, as most of these have an Atlantic coastline, the whole bunch will sign on with NAFTA, which will change its name to North Atlantic Free Trade Association. These nations will continue to prosper, especially if they dump their socialist governments. The French adventure, as ever, will fail.

For further, well-written, commentary from a conservative/libertarian French point of view, mainly in English, see No Pasaran!.

Posted by Verity at November 5, 2005 12:53 PM

The Brits & Scandinavians are welcome to NAFTA, as far as this American is concerned. We should throw in free movement of labor too.

But you didn't mention Germany. What do you think they will do? They don't have much in common with the Southern powers, but perhaps they are too "German" to join an Anglo-Viking alliance either? I hope they don't team up with Russia again ...

Posted by: Brock at November 5, 2005 04:18 PM

I can imagine the vatican having some interesting reaction to the scenario you outline.

After the last century it is interesting that one could outline such a broad vision for Europe without mentioning Germany.

Were Muslims to gain that much influence in southern Europe and with demographics what they are, it is hard to imagine them not taking over those Mediterranean countries. It seems like it would be difficult to maintain borders in such a division of Europe and that it would be inherently unstable.

More likely, I see a rush to a French version of affirmative action after this dies down with Muslims being brought into governmental positions of greater and greater authority until they are able to make themselves the swing power in forming governments. What happens then will be very interesting.

Posted by: Richard Heddleson at November 5, 2005 04:24 PM

Richard Heddlestone, interesting point you make about expected affirmative action, and I think you may be right. But to the fury of the voters. And they do still have a vote. The French are very angry, you know. And don't forget, if Chirac gets voted out, it's straight into the pokey for him. So he can't afford to offend the electorate enough to get kicked out. I don't know what will happen.

Posted by: Verity at November 5, 2005 05:23 PM

Verity, your analysis of France is very different from the country I know. This so-called insurrection has been expected by everyone for years. In fact, it is rather surprising that the people of the banlieus have been so patient.

Posted by: Helen at November 5, 2005 06:05 PM

This looks like the early shots in another Thirty Years' war of civilizations.

And if the Euro-economies can't create jobs and the Muslims won't assimilate, it's very hard to see anything but worsening violence as far as a decade or so down the road.

IMHO the EU is on the way to coming apart exclusive of the Muslim problems, though increasing civil violence will accelerate the process.

Posted by: Anarchus at November 5, 2005 06:10 PM

Helen - Well, as you don't tell us what your opposing experience of France actually is, I can't comment. But I was living there until a year ago. Everything I have written is based on personal experience.

You say you are surprised that the people of the banlieus have been so patient. This would be the Muslim people of the banlieus? And their "patience" has been in what cause?

Posted by: Verity at November 5, 2005 06:17 PM

At some level, I would find it highly amusing if Iraq ends up 'saving' Europe by allowing the debate mated married to the legitimacy of political self-determination that needs to happen within Islam.

Posted by: Brock at November 5, 2005 07:57 PM

I dont think you know much about Portugal... and where is Italy?

Posted by: lucklucky at November 5, 2005 10:50 PM

I know absolutely nothing about Portugal, but they are stuck down in the south and when the big split comes, they are going to have to join a bloc or go it alone.

Posted by: Verity at November 6, 2005 12:30 AM

Possibly, Verity, living wherever you did in France, you did not notice that there has been a certain amount of maltreatment and discrimination of everyone with dark faces in France. That includes, for instance, Jews from North Africa. Most people whether they live in France or know something about the country, have been predicting and explosion for some time. Clearly, your own experience and knowledge is different from those people's.

Posted by: Helen at November 6, 2005 04:41 AM

No, Helen, I am with most people and have been predicting violence, too.

I do not agree with you about prejudice against anyone with dark skin! Don't you think that when they see a N African, they assume that individual is Islamic? In my experience, the French are totally, unself-consciously relaxed in dealing with folks from W Africa. There's an ease - almost a kinship - on both sides. In my town, there were several couples with adopted black children and no one looked twice. And I was in the conservative south.

Luckylucky - I left out Italy! My error. I should just have written "the European Mediterranean countries".

Posted by: Verity at November 6, 2005 07:24 AM

Interestingly, the Frenchified Russian sort-of-ex-Communist Alexandre Kojeve wrote a long article in 1945 (not translated into English until last year) advocating a "Latin Empire" based on France, Spain, and Italy which would be very much like what Verity descibes. Of course Kojeve was expecting those nations to hold onto their possessions in Libya, Tunisia, and Morocco and incorporate them into their empire. He himself was an atheist but saw Catholicism as the social glue of such an empire. He expected Germany to be too Protestant to fit in. However, the partition of Germany, which he had not anticipated, had the side effect of making West Germany substantially more Catholic than Germany as a whole, and Konrad Audenauer's Catholic Christian Democratic government became a more amenable partner for a new Latin Empire than Kojeve had thought possible. So the Empire went ahead without Spain but with West Germany. They also used the name "European Economic Community" as better for public relations.

Posted by: Jim Bennett at November 11, 2005 01:13 PM
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